BU General Election Picks

Barbados General Election Watch

Click names of candidates to glean past election info

City of Bridgetown(Todd/Bostic)) BLP

St. Michael South – (Stuart/Lynch)  – DLP

St. Michael East – (Best/Prescod) – BLP

St. Michael South Central – (Gill/Sealy) – BLP

St. Michael Central – (Blackett/Holder) – BLP

St. Michael South East – (Tannis/Bradshaw) – BLP

St. Michael North East – (Mottley/Inniss) – BLP

St. Michael North – (Toppin/Depeiza) – BLP

St. Michael North West – (Sinckler/Nicholls) – DLP

St. Michael West – (Carrington/Atherley) – BLP

St. Michael West Central (Paul/Gooding-Edghill) – BLP

Christ Church West – (Agard/Depeiza) – BLP

Christ Church West Central – (Lashley/Durant-Callender – DLP

Christ Church South – (Boyce/Walcott) – BLP

Christ Church East Central – (Jones/Sands) – DLP

Christ Church East – (Lowe/Abrahams) – BLP

St. Philip North – (Lashley/Weir) – DLP

St. Philip South – (Brathwaithe/Wood) – BLP

St. Philip West – (Estwick/Eastmond) – DLP

St. George North – (Clarke/Ince) – BLP

St. George South – (Byer-Suckoo/Sutherland) – BLP

St. John – (Thompson/Griffith) – DLP

St. Joseph – (Marshall/Holder) – BLP

St. Thomas – (Forde/Hinds) – BLP

St. James North – (Hinkson/Husbands) – BLP

St. James South – (Inniss/Husbands) – BLP

St. James Central – (Hutson/Symmonds) – BLP

St. Peter – (Arthur/Benn) – BLP

St. Andrew – (Payne/Sandiford-Garner) – BLP

St. Lucy – (Kellman/Phillips) – DLP

DLP 8
BLP 22
Undecided 0

No Comments on “BU General Election Picks”

  1. FED UP December 18, 2012 at 7:21 AM #

    18 BLP – 12 DLP. Elections on 25 January 2012. Anytime after that is riskful and wishful.

    Like

  2. PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926-2013 AND SEE MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS January 7, 2013 at 4:44 PM #

    http://bajan.wordpress.com/2013/01/02/the-violet-beckles-affair-separating-fact-from-fiction-part-i/#comments
    MASSIVE LAND FRAUD , CHECK THE UP DATES

    Like

  3. Observing(...) January 7, 2013 at 9:46 PM #

    @david

    SMS – Stuart
    SMC – Blackett
    CCWC – Lashley
    SJS – Inniss
    SME – prescod (our bet still on :) )

    20 – 10 BLP

    Opposition
    CS, ML, SL, FS, DI, MT, DK, DE, RJ, SB

    Almost an eager 11. Who do you think would be leader of the opposition? Lol

    Observing

    Like

  4. David January 7, 2013 at 10:01 PM #

    @Observing

    Will give it to David Estwick.

    Like

  5. Prodigal Son January 7, 2013 at 10:08 PM #

    Right now, a fair analysis! I have my doubts about Steve Blackett, though!

    Like

  6. Observing(...) January 8, 2013 at 3:32 PM #

    @prodigal
    Blackett’s victory is more about the opponent than about him. Lol.

    @david
    Do you really see that group voting for Estwick as Leader of opposition?

    Like

  7. PLANTATION DEEDS FROM 1926-2013 AND SEE MASSIVE FRAUD ,LAND TAX BILLS AND NO DEEDS January 13, 2013 at 7:44 AM #

    http://bajan.wordpress.com/2013/01/12/the-violet-beckles-affair-separating-fact-from-fiction-part-v/

    Like

  8. Terry January 21, 2013 at 1:23 PM #

    Who will be the First to tell the Truth DLP or the BLP first to do so will Win the Elections. tic tic ……

    Like

  9. firefox January 21, 2013 at 8:28 PM #

    Hi David, how soon will you update the BU Genserl Election Pick?

    Like

  10. David January 21, 2013 at 8:55 PM #

    @firefox

    Not much has changed. Given the revelation of Cadres poll#3 we have switched Best with Prescod and given Stuart the seat from undecided.

    Like

  11. Observing(...) January 22, 2013 at 12:02 AM #

    @david
    Re. Kenny Best…….Finally! Lol.

    I’ll throw a spanner in the works here though. There is an absolute outside chance for the dlp to win the elections by 1, maybe 2 seats. But, it requires vision, balls, courage, common sense, strategy and 100% teamwork with a sacrifical lamb or two. Yes, I know….that’s asking a lot of the dems. Given the nature of these things and my “loyalties” I won’t say any more for now. But rest assured, we will either have a razor thin 16-14/17-13 DLP or a 21-9 BLP blowout leaning to a landslide. There are no more in between scenarios. Remember this post election night.

    Just Observing

    Like

  12. David January 22, 2013 at 5:49 AM #

    @Observing(…)

    You are hedging? Shame on you! :-)

    The only tactic outstanding to turn the tide is if the promised revelations i.e. Pegasus, FBI report, text note are perceived to be so damaging by the electorate. Even if this happens the BLP still has time to save grace by firing Arthur and appointing MAM which may explain why Stuart may be waiting until so late to drop the bomb shells.

    Like

  13. Yardbroom January 22, 2013 at 6:26 AM #

    Hi Observing(…) January 22, 2013. 12:02AM
    I am with you on this one, but to fine tune it a bit, I think the DLP might get a “WORKING MAJORITY”. My reasoning is that it is not a simple matter of how many seats are lost. . . there could be gains. As you know it is not an “exact” science. . . there are many turns in the road yet to come.

    Like

  14. Observing(...) January 22, 2013 at 10:52 AM #

    @David
    not hedging. Just objectively analysing.

    @yardbroom
    To navigate turns properly you need to pick your angle from early. lol. Not sure if there’s enough time to pick and choose angles.

    Just Observing

    Like

  15. firefox January 22, 2013 at 11:49 AM #

    Thanks David for your prompt update. I will review and comment. However at a quick-look I am not sure about the Sinckler/Nicholls seat my gut feeling and the talk on the ground, this may go the other way. But I will compare your conclusions with my notes and comment later. Thanks again.

    Like

  16. David January 22, 2013 at 11:55 AM #

    @firefox

    Does Nichols have money to spend?

    Like

  17. Tony Toppin February 7, 2013 at 5:55 PM #

    The undecided in St.Philip South is Anthony Wood to win comvertable

    Like

  18. True Bajan February 9, 2013 at 12:29 PM #

    I beg to differ with you on Christ Church West Central and St. James South. Lashley will win Christ Church West Centrl and Donville will win St. James South.

    Like

  19. David February 10, 2013 at 12:02 PM #

    BU picks updated.

    BU notes with interest that in Peter Wickham’s column today he is ‘bigging up’ Sinckler, Inniss and Sealy.

    Like

  20. firefox February 10, 2013 at 12:29 PM #

    I am now not too sure of any of them. However Peter is of the view that Inniss is the safest of the three. I don’t know, he is the man with the stats. We shall wait and see. David, is it true that Sinckler was booed at his meeting Friday night? And is it also true that the meeting finish well before 9.00pm?

    Like

  21. ! February 10, 2013 at 12:37 PM #

    Sinckler will dismiss the arrogant Nicholls clown. Nicholls has now resorted to pulling down Sinckler’s posters with a team after 6pm.St. Michael North West will not settle for less when they have the best. Chris will win this one.He has done more in 5 years than that loser Mascoll ever acomplished.

    Like

  22. firefox February 10, 2013 at 12:40 PM #

    Could it be that Peter Wickham is looking for a soft landing for his good friend Chris Sinckler? I also note with keen interest that Peter said Sealy stands a fair chance of winning if the negative swing does not stray far beyond the 7% mentioned two weeks ago. I am hearing word that the swing maybe as much as 10.5% – 11% if this is true it is not good news for the boys.

    Like

  23. firefox February 10, 2013 at 12:41 PM #

    @! —For your sake I hope so. good luck!!!!!!!

    Like

  24. Observing(...) February 10, 2013 at 12:47 PM #

    If sinckler goes then so does the rest of the party. Sinckler will defeat nicholls. Inniss should defeat husbands, but, there’s always that possibility. Sealy should have had no trouble with Gill but his margin is too tight and he’s been to “shaky” nationally to tell. By Saturday it should bee clearer.

    One note though, the national swing forecast method will be tested this cycle since there are so many individual constituencies with their own peculiar characteristics. The overall swing won’t be able to predict all the results…

    My count as we speak though is 18-12, BLP.

    Just Observing

    Like

  25. David February 10, 2013 at 12:53 PM #

    @firefox

    Have not heard your report however it was widely reported in the traditional media that Sinckler was booed at Deacons on Nomination Day. BU hastens to add that we do not support this behaviour from our primary school children.

    Like

  26. David February 10, 2013 at 1:08 PM #

    What is interesting to BU is the fact Mark Williams has been seen canvassing with the Joe Atherley team. Is he working both Atherley and Nicholls campaigns? One would think he is a valuable resource for the Nicholls camp.

    Like

  27. Fiddler on Roof February 10, 2013 at 1:53 PM #

    @ David

    What to make of Peter Wickham’s failure or refusal to include Dr. David Estwick as possible candidate for Leader of the Oppostion when or if the DLP ends up losing this election?

    Like

  28. Fiddler on Roof February 10, 2013 at 2:02 PM #

    @ Hants

    Dale Marshall is dead in St.Joseph. They are trying to save him but he’s already underwater thanks in major part to Mia’s deployment of resources to help Dennis Holder.

    Mia cutting out Owen, Dale and George Payne’s balls with Rusty bread knife. BRUTAL.

    Like

  29. David (not BU) February 10, 2013 at 2:30 PM #

    Fiddler on Roof is that what you all tell yourself at night to help the pain of losing this election? if Mia was that big and had that much power, she would be leader of the party but you come heer and THINK that big people would believe such crap.

    only the DEMs.

    David 22-8 are interesting numbers. hmmm! did you care to call the swing number?

    Like

  30. David February 10, 2013 at 2:39 PM #

    @David (not BU)

    This general election is interesting for many reasons:

    no long coat tails of the leaders;
    a time of austerity the derivative of an unprecedented global economic slowdown;
    weak candidates whether first timers or recycle;
    the Mia Mottley factor;
    the E11 factor
    etc etc

    What will win out for those undecided is the fact that there is pain when balancing the cheque book and the fear of change which sensible individuals know must come. There people BU believes will go with tried ans trusted even though the Owen years were in different times.

    Like

  31. Observing(...) February 11, 2013 at 7:27 PM #

    @David
    Help me with your rationale for

    – Husbands over Inniss
    – Arthur over Blackett

    I can “live” with the other choices though I’m tempted to give Sealy and Lowe the nod (for now) . Momentum and enthusiasm seem clearly more on the BLP side and I haven’t seen signs of them faltering (yet) after a serious sprint at the start. The DLP needs something strategically and politically major during this week. If the current campaigning status quo remains as is, we may be in store for some very daunting results for one party.

    btw, if both Inniss and Sealy goes, then Stephen Lashley and Sinckler are not as safe as they would think either.

    Just Observing

    Like

  32. David February 11, 2013 at 7:42 PM #

    @observing(…)

    Mia has been throwing her weight around for Arthur if not her coat tail.

    St. James South has a large middleclass and working class, both will work against Inniss Harold Hoyte’s view not withstanding.

    Like

  33. Observing(...) February 11, 2013 at 8:32 PM #

    @david
    Understood on both counts. We’ll see if Mia can bring him home. St. james is definitely going Bees. Donville is the only DLP hope. Stephen Lashley may be upset as well then. Let’s wait on the manifesto, the poll, and how the weekend turns.

    Just Observing

    Like

  34. Listening February 11, 2013 at 8:52 PM #

    Observing , David, assumption is yall on the ground not bunkered in middle class house in heights and terraces feet up with ac and fancy wide screen computer. Just saying. Take a read:

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    “Dewey Defeats Truman” was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election in an upset victory.
    The paper’s erroneous headline became notorious after a jubilant Truman was photographed holding a copy of the paper during a stop at St. Louis Union Station while returning by train from his home in Independence, Missouri to Washington, D.C.[1] The Chicago Tribune, which had once referred to Truman as a “nincompoop”, was a famously Republican-leaning paper. In a retrospective article over half a century later about the newspaper’s most famous and embarrassing headline, the Tribune wrote that Truman “had as low an opinion of the Tribune as it did of him.”[2]
    On election night, this earlier press deadline required the first post-election issue of the Tribune to go to press before even the East coast states had reported many results from the polling places. The paper relied on its veteran Washington correspondent and political analyst Arthur Sears Henning, who had predicted the winner in four out of five presidential contests in the past 20 years. Conventional wisdom, supported by polls, was almost unanimous that a Dewey presidency was “inevitable”, and that the New York governor would win the election handily. The first (one-star) edition of the Tribune therefore went to press with the banner headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN”.[1]”

    BU, Wickham you’re warned to stop jukking your hands in fowl botsy to count eggs. Well well well, cocksure overconfident Owen looks and sounds more arrogant than the dread days of 2003 to 2008. Nuff said.

    Like

  35. Observing(...) February 11, 2013 at 9:51 PM #

    @listening
    1948 versus 2013
    Presidential election versus 30 seat race
    Republican paper versus wide open blog
    Limited undeveloped polling versus consistent conventional polling
    Reliance on one man (henning) versus converging observation from various media and sources

    If you can point to a more recent example of cumulative polls, and widespread anecdotal observation from multiple media being wrong I’ll be happy to agree with you. I do get your point, but, you have to admit, one team “seems” way ahead of the other by any criteria you can come up with.

    Btw, assumption is correct. Feet are firmly planted. Lol.

    Just observing

    Like

  36. Gabriel Tackle February 11, 2013 at 10:00 PM #

    @Listening
    Wishing and hoping for Stuart and the Dems to return to form the next Government is a waste of your time.Stuart sat on his fanny for 3 years or so and at the basic level refused or should I say abandoned the electorate of Barbados,refusing to share his present record or his vision with them.In the meantime Barbados has been borrowing from the NIS every month to pay Public Sector salaries and you would think that Bajans would be up in arms over this.When some awaken its going to be too late.On this basis alone we must be rid of Stuart and the Dems.Serious decisions cannot be postponed.Bitterness comes in the morrow.This crap about DEMS NOW,DEMS AGAIN is for the gimme,gimme people who are led to believe the Government owes them a living and they need not work for their livelihood.’Knowing and
    not applying and willing and not doing is not enough'(Goethe)Stuart is found wanting.

    Like

  37. DavidB February 11, 2013 at 11:42 PM #

    If the swing is anywhere near 11%, then we would be looking at something like 27 – 3 in favour of the BLP.

    This is not meant as a prediction; it just reflects that only about 3 persons on the DLP side have a margin that could withstand such a swing.

    Personally, I speculate that it is more likely in the vicinity of 8%.

    Like

  38. Fidel February 12, 2013 at 12:29 AM #

    DavidB | February 11, 2013 at 11:42 PM | I speculate the swing between 4% to 6% then factor in peculiarities of individual constituencies. Dale rabbit implants Marshall won in 2008 taking the swing into consideration he should have lost handily. Rommell Marshall also lost when in spite of the swing he was down to win easily.

    Like

  39. Crazy Horse Jockey February 12, 2013 at 6:58 AM #

    Fidel

    St.Joseph is gone. The big DLP money has moved into the two northern parishes and Dennis Holder already has 12 hired cars and 3 buses for Election Day.

    Dale is gone and when it’s done he’ll have Mia to thank. Nobody like a traitor, and that’s just what Girlie Girlie Marshall is.

    Like

  40. FED UP February 14, 2013 at 7:21 AM #

    Mia holds the key to the Election. If the BLP allows her to appear on CBC TV to deliver the address to the Nation, then there is no way the DLP can continue to use the Mia/Owen disunity.

    This is the right time for Mia to bargain for whatever she wants and she is smart enough to know this. This is one interesting election. The most interesting one in my lifetime of 35 years.

    Like

  41. ! February 14, 2013 at 7:40 AM #

    Mia Mottley will do to George Payne and Dale Marshall exactly what she did to the mock B “coleader” Mascoll in 2008.
    There is so much division and dislike among the BLP candidates, it is amazing but one thing they always bank on is a strong publuc relations machinery to create false impressions about policy and personality.

    Like

  42. David February 14, 2013 at 8:01 AM #

    Nothing has been delivered from the platform of the DLP so far which BU considers a game changer.

    Like

  43. Fidel February 14, 2013 at 8:21 AM #

    ate This
    David | February 14, 2013 at 8:01 AM |
    Nothing has been delivered from the platform of the DLP so far which BU considers a game changer

    Same applies to BLP platform, no?

    Like

  44. David February 17, 2013 at 12:47 AM #

    According to the recent CADRES poll thinks are heating up:

    http://www.nationnews.com/articles/view/freundel-out-front-.-.-.-but-bees-still-have-slight-edge/

    BU will update our picks on Tuesday.

    Like

  45. David February 19, 2013 at 10:32 PM #

    BU will stay with our picks as stated above.

    Like

  46. DR. THE HONOURABLE February 22, 2013 at 5:13 PM #

    all of you were wrong !

    Like

  47. David February 23, 2013 at 12:02 PM #

    Final results:

    http://www.caribbeanelections.com/blog/?p=2162

    Like

  48. ac March 9, 2013 at 12:07 PM #

    Reading the comments after the results makes for good comedy on “saturday nit live” wonder how many crows have miller and observing devoured as of recents.

    Like

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