David October 25, 2015 at 10:37 AM #
Interesting intervention, the problem though is that we have a population which feels comfortable forming opinions based on a feeling and forget the cry to pressure the establishment to collect available […]data. Where can a better experiment be found than to look at the cricket data set.
With all due respect to the disabled, I feel the need to pass on to you what my sister passed on to me years ago: “Feeling is for the blind”. Too many members of our population are “blind”. That explains why one-eyed men are kings in Barbados. The educated and enlightened ones know the value of using statistical data, distributions and their means and variances, along with hypothesis testing, as tools to assist with national planning and to achieve national objectives.
We have over 50 years of primary, secondary, and tertiary education data. Let us say that there is a global need for 1/2 billion doctors over the next 10 years. What is the probability that Barbados can produce 20,000 of the world’s requirement for doctors in the next decade?
How much of the world’s actuaries, engineers, accountants, investments managers are we aiming to produce in the next 8 years?
Have you ever heard a Minister of Education in Barbados bringing this sort of thinking to the table for discussion? How does the threat of cracking heads and shooting people fit into effective national human resource planning, one of the most basic and fundamental responsibilities of the Minister of Education?
We have over 50 years of political data on the performance of candidates from two major political parties in Barbados. Based on this history, what statistical distribution has been used to predict the performance of the major political parties in Barbados? What is the standard error of this distribution? What is the probability that neither one of the political parties will muster 35% of the eligible vote in the next general election in Barbados?
Have you ever heard Peter Wickham raising such issues? Instead, Peter has used pseudo science (making unscientific pronouncements and projections based on first differences (a “swing”)) to persuade and guide voters into producing an electoral result that HE wants. Attempts made in the last election to create polling results to suit HIS agenda confirm this.
For reasons known only to himself, Peter Wickham wanted the political leadership of Barbados to be controlled by Chris Sinckler and Mia Mottley. Small, and biased polls could have been easily used to start the ball rolling.
Furthermore, the first English settlers (all males) collected some African slaves (all males) and headed for Barbados. Therefore, Barbados has been experiencing homosexuality for almost 500 years. What statistical distribution should we use to predict the incidence of homosexuality in Barbados? What is the mean and variance of this distribution? What is the probability that at least 20% of Barbadians today are homosexuals? Why is Peter Wickham using the airwaves of Barbados to advance the cause and benefits of homosexuality? Did the majority of Barbadians clamour for this discussion? Again, similar to political polling, the discussion on homosexuality is aimed at producing a result that Peter wants.
And now to cricket and its dynamics. We have compiled almost 100 years of data on the West Indies cricket team. Based on the team that we are playing, we have to find the best statistical distribution, and its mean and variance, to assist us with our decision making.
For example, let us say that we know, on average, our individual fast bowlers over the past 100 years had to bowl 80 balls before they were able to break our opponents’ opening partnership. Today, we have six fast bowlers who are competing for a place on the team, and the average amount of balls each had to bowl to break an opening partnership are: 120, 78, 160, 140, 72, 200. Which two should we select? Should we be satisfied with the current batch? Or should we let everyone in the Caribbean know that we are desperately searching for fast bowlers and set up invitational clinics and training venues to attract and develop talented prospects?
Assume that we are playing against Australia. Historically, Australia has applied immense pressure on our batsmen in the 2nd innings when we are chasing runs to win. Our statistical distribution tells us that one batsman, with a higher test batting average, has a 20% chance of making 50 runs in the 2nd innings of a match. Another batsman has a 55% chance of making at least 50 runs in his 2nd innings. Only one of them can play. Which one should be selected?