Statement on the Review of Barbados' Economy for the First Q1

Is Governor Delisle Worrell Preparing Barbadians for a Contraction in the International Reserves?

The Governor of the Central Bank Delisle Worrell posted a full colour page in today’s media titled “More Foreign Reserves are not Necessarily Better”, the thesis of which is,  “Countries should maintain foreign exchange reserves sufficient to allow time to adjust to the vagaries of international markets, so that banks and traders do not become apprehensive about the value of the currency”.

While the theory of what Governor Worrell is espousing cannot be questioned, many have questioned the timing of the statement just before the half year Economic Review is due. Is his communication a presage of contracting forex levels for 2nd quarter?

The Governor et al must be emboldened by the response of Barbadians to the floating of savings bonds. While pro-government supporters have explained the bullish public response as a sign of confidence in the government, others hold the view – including BU – the prospect of low interest rates offered by banks is the main reason why several bond floats were oversubscribed in quick time. The other interesting observation has been the use of advertising and public relations of late by the Central Bank to deliver to execute.

What do we see if we connect the dots!

Click image to read.

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34 Comments on “Is Governor Delisle Worrell Preparing Barbadians for a Contraction in the International Reserves?”

  1. Wily Coyote July 5, 2015 at 6:33 PM #

    A LOT of Debt re-payments are coming DUE in the next few weeks that are going to require some $300M+ in foreign currency, this will drop Barbados foreign reserves well below the “12 week” bottom line, most likely to the 7 to 8 week levels. Central Bank Governor, crack pot Worrel is just getting his excuse ready.

    Like

  2. Michael Cox July 5, 2015 at 6:33 PM #

    Jerry:

    I will respond to you tomorrow.

    Mike

    Like

  3. millertheanunnaki July 5, 2015 at 6:41 PM #

    You guys were warned about this scamp who not cooks the foreign reserves books but also doctors the fiscal and financial data to suit his political objectives. Whom do you think is behind the suppressing of the release of the latest IMF report? It will most likely surface when the politically-tainted governor delivers his upbeat 2nd quarter results showing forex stable and the economy on an upward growth path.

    No major FDI projects are on stream and almost all opportunities to borrow overseas to prop up the foreign reserves have dried up. So why not fiddle the numbers because the brass bowl Bajans would believe anything coming from officialdom.

    When is this blatant liar going to give an account of the imaginary $300 million that went missing in early 2013? BTW, what has become of that annual forex leakage from building the prison and formerly given for the reason in the continuing slide in foreign reserves?

    No wonder Owen Arthur has absolutely no respect for the practitioner of Ossie Moore economics.
    No one in regional or international financial circles has any respect for the joker. He is seen as a clown in the fraternity of economists.

    Barbados’s entire economy revolves around earning and spending forex. No increases in forex means no growth in the transaction-based economy on which the majority of tax revenues are generated.

    Like

  4. watchman July 5, 2015 at 8:35 PM #

    I know this Ossie Moore economics joker mind has leave him a long time ago, all that is left of this 75+ yrs old man is his clown actions on TV , but this DLP government want to send home people at 60 yrs

    Like

  5. MoneyBrain July 5, 2015 at 8:46 PM #

    Will it matter?

    Often times I like to write about an event or someone else’s article because of the importance to the overall picture. Today I will do something a little different. Below is an e-mail I received last Thursday from a friend. I have the utmost respect for his thought process and his knowledge. The writer is “plugged in” if you will, he has very high and powerful contacts in both China and London while he operates out of North America. The following is chilling to say the least because it comes from someone who “knows”, it is not a speculation on his part because he is seeing it real time! I will add my comments afterward.

    “I have been pounding the drum for some time about shrinking LIQUIDity and what the impact will be. Well, I can tell you that we are almost there and a real crisis is developing far faster than what I envisioned that is impacting the 75 Trillion Shadow Banking sector which is on the verge of IMPLOsion. Focus on Europe as the real crunch will spread like a wildfire from there seizing up all credit markets.

    We will ignore China and the BRIC for the time being as to impact and focus on the European Ponzi that the bankers have brought to the table.

    The specific area we should keep an eye on is the U.S./Bund 10yr yield spread, currently quoted at 155bp. This spread will start taking its lead from the Euro, so when that starts to lose favor keep sharp eye out for the next shoe to drop.

    Asian shares were very volatile today, Shanghai in particular, trading with a 10% variation (daily low to high) today as PBOC were active again. In Europe we did see small gains intraday in DAX and CAC but neither could hold on and actually closed well into negative territory both down over 1%. UK FTSE never got into the green all day and closed -1.5%. Even seasoned Traders are scared now about intra day swings and being caught in a downdraft at closing. Banks are tightening the leash on trading lines to reduce exposure which is sure to castrate liquidity of Bonds.

    Credit markets are almost closed, I am being told! I REPEAT again the CREDIT markets are almost closed! Trades are happening by appointment and to even move 1MM EM bonds (at an opening price) is almost impossible. It is not uncommon to hear an indication only to trade and a 2% trade away from from opening, assuming you are able to trade, and desire to trade is no guarantee of a sale.

    NO ONE is standing up to market prices and to liquidate even a small portfolio can take weeks. It is important that you cannot any longer trade the basis as value is dropping and there no point to partially selling specific bonds unless you can clear a given position! Because once there is a traded price ALL holders of same or similar will have to remark the book. That is unless you are a bank where the Balance Sheet is not a Mark-to-Market approach on a daily basis for the book being held.

    Think holding government debt at par for the likes of Italy or Spain knowing they can never clear the debt, and knowing that no one will buy at market. So what is the true value of a large portfolio? Do you hang on getting interest while it is still being paid or do you attempt to go to cash? And if you do who is going to step into your shoes ? Especially since the BANKS are all trying to save CASH and want NO exposure of any kind. We maybe approaching the point where central banks are LOSing credibility and their ability to contain the fallout, when governments are so badly in debt they are powerless and rudderless in a sea of CHAOS.

    We are coming very close to complete CHAOS that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park! We will be fortunate if we make fall without a real financial disaster!

    Following up from yesterday let’s ponder the upcoming Crisis that we are facing that specifically involves bonds, which are the bedrock of the financial system and what the fallout maybe.

    Every asset class in the world trades BASED on the pricing of bonds. So the fact that bonds are in a bubble (perhaps the biggest bubble in financial history), means that EVERY asset class is in a bubble. Everything from real estate to stocks to the buying of cars. Ever wonder why car loans in America exceed the value of the cars in question.

    Depending on who you speak with globally there are $75-$100 trillion in bonds in existence today.

    A little over a third of this is in the US ie $25-33 TR. About half comes from developed nations outside of the US. And finally, emerging markets make up the remaining 14%.

    So whatever the real trillion it is, the size of the Bond bubble alone should be enough to give pause. Even to the most aggressive or optimistic folks.

    However, when you consider that these bonds are PLEDGED as COLLATERAL for other securities (usually over-the-counter derivatives) the full impact of the Bond bubble explodes higher to something like $500 TRILLION. This affects both banks and the shadow banking industry. No wonder the Bank of England is perplexed as to the shrinking liquidity, it is a problem to which they have NO solution.

    To put this into perspective, the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market that nearly took down the financial system in 2008 was only a tenth of this ($50-$60 trillion).

    And this was at a time when there was QE and other means to throw at the problem which are now spent. So what will be used this round?

    This is why the shrinking liquidity in bond sales is even to give real pause and wonder what will come to be as confidence in government wanes, and the shrinking liquidity affects all markets at the same time in different degrees but with a universal discount of value and liquidity, egged on by collapsing DERIVATIVE trades.”

    So there you have it. This is something I have been saying for quite some time, we are living in the GREATEST CREDIT BUBBLE of ALL TIME…and it is BURSTING.

    It is bursting because LIQUIDITY is DRYING UP. The point made regarding the inability to offload bonds speaks to just how small the “exit door” really is in the most crowded trade in all of history! I hope you did not miss what was said about “marking to market”. The sale of a measly $1 million worth of bonds at any discount affects the pricing of BILLIONS which then acts as a further liquidity restriction on bank balance sheets.

    To this point we have not seen much weakness in U.S. markets BUT we are witnessing the “VOLUME” DRY UP DRASTICALLY. This lack of volume also speaks to the SIZE of the EXIT DOOR.

    Without volume, how does one sell if they want to? Better yet, without sufficient volume, how does one sell if they HAVE TO or are FORCED TO?

    In Asia, China’s stock market has collapsed over 20% in just three weeks. They are living a real life margin call! What is most humorous to me is China has now instituted rules where stock market margin calls can be met by posting real estate as collateral! Meeting margin with an already margined asset is the recipe for DISASTER!

    Please understand this, “policy” and central banks are doing whatever they can to keep investors away from the exit door because they know there isn’t one. Central banks GLOBALLY are “buyers” of nearly all things paper, do we really have “markets”? Anywhere? Let me finish with this, it is written in the Bible “and on the third day He rose again”. Here on Earth I believe we will soon find out after credit breaks, “and on the third day …nothing opened”. I truly believe this is possible. I do not believe the Earth can spin more than twice after a true break in the credit markets before a COMPLETE SHUTDOWN will occur. Nothing “paper” will be spared!

    Like

  6. SITH July 5, 2015 at 9:38 PM #

    If our currency had a free market to trade in we would not have to worry abut FX reserves. We could simply buy with Barbados dollars the FX currency we need to pay for our imports. However, the probability of the Barbados dollar being worth 2 to 1 to the US$ is just about nil. The real problem is that we are living beyond our means propped up by a unrealistic value of the Barbados dollar which is just about worthless in the world market.

    Like

  7. Prodigal Son July 5, 2015 at 9:55 PM #

    @ millertheanunnaki July 5, 2015 at 6:41 PM #

    You guys were warned about this scamp who not cooks the foreign reserves books but also doctors the fiscal and financial data to suit his political objectives. Whom do you think is behind the suppressing of the release of the latest IMF report? It will most likely surface when the politically-tainted governor delivers his upbeat 2nd quarter results showing forex stable and the economy on an upward growth path.

    No major FDI projects are on stream and almost all opportunities to borrow overseas to prop up the foreign reserves have dried up.

    …………………………………………………………………………………..

    Wait, miller, do you know that I was thinking the same thing when I was reading the governor’s ad? I said….uh oh…….the reserves must be very bad and would not be in a good shape when he delivers his second report……….who and behold we are thinking the same thing.

    This man has got to be suffering from something or the other. Is it not ironic that he gets his contract renewed for five more years by these morons yet these same morons tell everyday Barbadians they have to go home at age 60 who would more need a job than the governor.

    It is a sad situation.

    Like

  8. islandgal246 July 5, 2015 at 10:48 PM #

    Greece here we come!

    Like

  9. The People's Democratic Congress July 6, 2015 at 12:36 AM #

    The PDC has long been on here making it emphatically clear that the amount of foreign reserves that the Central Bank of Barbados has been claiming that the government of Barbados has been having has been totally exaggerated by the Central Bank itself.

    At that time (about two/three years ago) we had discovered that the Central Bank of Barbados, according to reports, had less than US $ 200 million in foreign reserves.

    PDC

    Like

  10. Simple Simon July 6, 2015 at 12:42 AM #

    “The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it. The process by which banks create money is so simple the mind is repelled. With something so important, a deeper mystery seems only decent.”
    – John Kenneth Galbraith writing in ‘Money: Whence it came, where it went’ (1975).

    Like

  11. Simple Simon July 6, 2015 at 12:45 AM #

    @islandgal246 July 5, 2015 at 10:48 PM “Greece here we come!”

    Yes. Except that Greece has Yanis Varoufakis and we have Chris Sinkler.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yanis_Varoufakis

    Like

  12. Simple Simon July 6, 2015 at 3:23 AM #

    Yanis Varoufakis Greece’s Minister of Finance resigns
    http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

    Like

  13. Wily Coyote July 6, 2015 at 6:51 AM #

    @islandgirl

    “Greece here we come” actually it’s “GREECE HERE WE ARE”

    Question — Does anyone know the last time Barbados Cabinet had an AUDIT of Central Bank ?

    Like

  14. Heavy Wait July 6, 2015 at 7:06 AM #

    The Governor of the Central Bank is a grave danger to Barbados. Between him and the Minister of Finance we are well and truly screwed economically.

    Like

  15. MoneyBrain July 6, 2015 at 7:30 AM #

    @Heavy—

    U talking bout Min of Fine ANTS???

    Like

  16. Artaxerxes July 6, 2015 at 12:36 PM #

    As a monetary policy perspective, a Central Bank operating under a fixed exchange rate regime needs to maintain a sufficient level of foreign reserves to maintain confidence in the fixed rate policy.

    Reserves are also important for a country’s financial stability, in that they can be used as a contingency against shocks such as unexpected fluctuations in the current account, natural catastrophes or changes in access to foreign markets.

    It seems as though the Central Bank governor is suggesting that the island should float its exchange rate, since smaller reserves are much better for countries that have floating exchange rates because the Central Bank would not have to intervene in the market to defend the currency.

    Like

  17. Prodigal Son July 6, 2015 at 1:28 PM #

    Artaxerxes,

    I think things are so bad that the governor is desperate and running out of ideas since the IMF is on his tail for continually printing money.

    My goodness, here is a man over 70 years old and would not leave the place………but continues to destroy Barbados with his out of dare ideas…………….we are doomed.

    Like

  18. Fractured BLP July 6, 2015 at 1:56 PM #

    Prodigirl,
    You are just jealous of Dr
    Worrell’s economic brillance and his ability to get Barbadians to invest 80 million follars in Bonds…..in a mere 3 weeks!

    You too damn petty…

    Prodigirl…….but then again you are in the habit of buying…….petticoats! !”!

    Like

  19. Ossie Moore- trouble July 7, 2015 at 12:36 PM #

    Murda,

    Moore trouble in paradise……D robot for a doctor is bare laugh. D “economy is STABLE”.. my ass (or should I say Your Ass-ness)…..lies, lies lies from a moojan

    Like

  20. David July 7, 2015 at 7:54 PM #

    Our leading journalist, David Ellis admitted on national radio he is a friend of the Governor of the Central Bank, it should not be so hard to solicit a clarification on the $5 million dollar deposit reported to have a connection to Leroy Parris. The longer this matter remains outstanding the Central Bank should accept the label of a joke central bank AND the media.

    Like

  21. MoneyBrain July 8, 2015 at 1:08 PM #

    Hants

    ‘Discretion is the better part of valor” where Stocks are concerned right now and at least to late Oct 2015.

    These bastard Pols in Washington and criminals Bankers on Wall St and somewhat globally have very seriously impaired the complete financial system. Save yourself!

    Like

  22. Artaxerxes July 8, 2015 at 1:37 PM #

    The following excerpts were taken from a working paper written in October 1994 by Harold Carrington of the Central Bank of Barbados, entitled “On Managing Foreign Reserves During A Crisis – The Barbadian Experience: 1991 – 1993”

    “During the recent economic crisis in Barbados, management of the foreign reserves concentrated on maintaining the adequacy of reserves in order to resist pressure to adjust the parity of the Barbados dollar. Adequacy was seen from two perspectives. One objective was to meet the Quarterly targets for foreign reserves (the NIR) which had been agreed with the IMF. It was well known that if all of the programme’s performance criteria were met, there would be a return of lost confidence, it would be easier to once more borrow on international capital markets, to rebuild reserves and avoid a devaluation.”

    “During the review period, $61.6 million in two operations came from the sale of Government assets, but on both occasions there were criticisms that it was “distressed divestment” in which the funds which were received bore no relation to the true value of the assets. Late in 1991, Government sold its shares in the telecommunications company (to the British multinational Cable and Wireless) for $48.7 million.”

    “Apart from its direct impact on foreign reserves, this transaction was critical in helping to achieve (albeit barely) the agreed NIR target for end-December 1991. It was very important to meet this target since it significantly improved the chances of securing the Standby programme, the specifics of which were still under discussion at the time. Accordingly, in the face of great opposition at home, the authorities sold the assets.”

    “During the second quarter of 1992, a portion of Government’s ownership in the local flour mill was sold to Maple Leaf Company of Canada for $12.9 million. In retrospect, one may claim that this sale was less critical than the one before, but at the time everything was secondary to meeting the end-June 1992 target for foreign reserves.”

    It is very interesting to note that Mr. Carrington has a different perspective.

    Like

  23. DLP (formerly CBC) TV July 8, 2015 at 1:55 PM #

    Do we really need to read the whole article!!!!!! Just from the headline alone you know that the paper it printed on only worthy of toilet purposes. But because this goodly gentleman has a Doctorate the unenlightened may think he making sense. It make sense only in the Wonderland that Alice lives and Jenkins

    Like

  24. millertheanunnaki July 8, 2015 at 4:25 PM #

    @ Artaxerxes July 8, 2015 at 1:37 PM

    There are a few “Harold Carrington(s)” around town. Was there one at the Central Bank too? Or was there a Harold CODRINGTON? Don’t want these ‘Harolds’ to be mixed up.

    BTW, can you think of any assets the present administration can sell even in a distressed ‘auction’ sale to earn foreign exchange in the coming months?
    Would SOL be expected to settle the ‘net’ proceeds from the forced sale of the BNTCL in US $.

    Will the GAIA be up for sale and lease back just to feed the forex hungry monster that will soon be on the rampage?

    Like

  25. Artaxerxes July 10, 2015 at 1:03 PM #

    millertheanunnaki July 8, 2015 at 4:25 PM #

    “There are a few “Harold Carrington(s)” around town. Was there one at the Central Bank too? Or was there a Harold CODRINGTON? Don’t want these ‘Harolds’ to be mixed up.

    You are correct, Miller, the name is actually HAROLD CODRINGTON.

    The government plans to amalgamate the operations of BNTCL (or the BNOC) and National Petroleum Corporation [NPC]. Hence, I am not sure about the sale of anyone of those organizations to SOL.

    But as you know any venture undertaken by this administration, is usually done under a certain amount of secrecy. As such, we may have to wait until the MoF reveals more information.

    In a related matter, recall in my contributions to the Barbados Underground article, “Rush for Government Bonds,” I mentioned the government issued bonds to finance the deficit. In other words, this administration will use the funds realized from the issue of bonds to pay off debt, since, as recommended by the IMF, the Central Bank should cease financing the deficit by printing money.

    If you read today’s paper, you will learn that the funds from the bonds were used to pay income tax refunds for 2009, 2010 and 2011, (and to service other debt).

    Like

  26. David July 10, 2015 at 2:40 PM #

    @Artax

    Tell us the difference between printing money and raising money via borrowing on the domestic front i.e.savings bonds.

    Like

  27. Dean Forrest July 10, 2015 at 3:19 PM #

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer said in the recent UK Budget:-

    A country which is not in control of its borrowings has its borrowings in control of it.

    Like

  28. Walter Blackman July 10, 2015 at 3:50 PM #

    Artaxerxes July 8, 2015 at 1:37 PM #
    The following excerpts were taken from a working paper written in October 1994 by Harold Carrington of the Central Bank of Barbados, entitled “On Managing Foreign Reserves During A Crisis – The Barbadian Experience: 1991 – 1993”

    “During the review period, $61.6 million in two operations came from the sale of Government assets, but on both occasions there were criticisms that it was “distressed divestment” in which the funds which were received bore no relation to the true value of the assets. …..”

    Artaxerxes,
    The comment I am about to make deviates considerably from the major thrust of your argument. For that, I beg your forgiveness.

    The above quotation from Mr. Codrington’s work offers us a subtle but extremely deep insight into some of the seeds that have now eventually sprouted into plants of national destruction.

    At the lower level of Barbadian society, many individuals view government property, not as national assets, but as items to steal, destroy, or abuse. At those levels, the governmental items are comparatively small and of lesser value. Workers steal time, money, toilet paper, bathroom soap, lumber, cement, staple machines, pens, folders, writing pads etc. Anything they can lay their hands on. Many workers do this often enough for the cumulative costs to become significant.

    These “lower level” workers and individuals are unwittingly mimicking their “higher level” counterparts.

    At the highest level, the items of governmental property involved are extremely high in value, and they are stolen through the use of deals, secretive transactions, and kickbacks.

    Here is an example of how the kickback mechanism works:
    Let us assume that the market value of a governmental asset is worth $100 million.
    The first step is to identify an interested and “co-operative” foreign buyer. High level Barbadian thieves don’t want “gypsy Bajans” to “know their business”. Our high-level crooks prefer to hide their loot in foreign accounts. Do you remember David Thompson, one of Barbados biggest high-level thieves, accusing the BLP of stealing millions of dollars and stashing them in foreign accounts?

    The next step is to negotiate a price that will definitely attract the buyer. Let us assume that the agreed price in our example is $60 million. Right away, the buyer is guaranteed a windfall of $40 million.

    The final step is to instruct the co-operative buyer how to pay the negotiated price. In our example, papers are drawn up to reflect an official selling price of $25 million, which is duly paid to the government.

    The buyer is then given a foreign bank account number and then instructed to deposit the remaining $35 million in that foreign account.

    So, in our example, for an asset which was worth $100 million, “the funds which were (officially) received bore no relation to the true value of the assets. …..”

    Our slaves, oops I mean workers, trudge to work everyday to feed this mechanism and keep the system alive. Long live the system!

    Like

  29. Prodigal Son July 10, 2015 at 3:55 PM #

    Why are Barbadians so gullible? It seems as if there are so many in this country that still trust this wicked government.

    From the onset, we on BU were saying that the money realised from these savings bonds was going to be used to pay debt and that if the people wanted back their money after OSA said the bonds had junk status, the government would have been hard pressed to return the money. Now we know for sure.

    Did Bizzy not say that he did not get the money owed to him after the Stinkliar told us that they had to impose the solid waste tax to pay off Bizzy? He scared the hell out of the poor old people telling them that if they did not pay, penalties would be imposed and the poor old people ran and paid the tax……………..only after did we find out that the law did not mention anything about penalties.

    Well, when questioned why he did not get the money, Bizzy told David Ellis he would have to ask the minister of finance. From what I have heard and understand, the money raised from these bonds should be put into the sinking fund.

    I am still at a loss that Bajans could be so gullible to put their hard earned dollars in the hands of Stinkliar and the governor……………….

    …………………why crumbs, the two of them must have been laughing their big heads off at how they have been able to manipulate Barbadians!

    Like

  30. Colonel Buggy July 10, 2015 at 9:11 PM #

    Eire (the Irish Republic) a few weeks ago held a referendum over the question of same sex unions, and received a resounding YES. Now we see some Irish groups canvassing for a referendum over the question of abortions.
    Next referendum on the menu may well be agitated for by the SSA, Sheep Shaggers Association.

    Like

  31. Bush Tea July 10, 2015 at 9:22 PM #

    @ Colonel Buggy
    Next referendum on the menu may well be agitated for by the SSA, Sheep Shaggers Association
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Next?…. Wuh Baffy launched that drive already…!!

    Like

  32. ac July 10, 2015 at 9:55 PM #

    so you blp knuckle heads what would u prefer the govt to do with the money, stuff the blp pockets and leave the country as broke as your beloved past govt did, what so wrong with the govt bonds using to pay debt wunna are so self centered that even the money being put to bring back a level of stability… rub wunna a,ss holes the wrong way, what a bunch of evilness.
    speaking of blind fuh sure prodigal somebody throw a whole heap of salt in your eyes,

    Like

  33. Artaxerxes July 12, 2015 at 11:07 AM #

    David July 10, 2015 at 2:40 PM #

    “Tell us the difference between printing money and raising money via borrowing on the domestic front i.e.savings bonds.”

    Governments often resort to printing money when they cannot finance borrowing by selling bonds.

    The value of the currency will be reduced if money is printed faster than the growth of real economic output, which may lead to an increase in inflation. For example, if 100% of money printed while its value remains constant, there will be a corresponding increase in prices in the economy (i.e. all prices must double).

    Inflation reduces the value of domestic securities causing a lack of international investor confidence in the economy.

    A deficit requires an increase in borrowing, for which there are two main sources; the Central Bank and the private sector of the economy (banks and other financial institutions, firms and households).

    Governments issue savings bonds as a means of borrowing from these sources and would use the acquired funds to finance the deficit.
    Recall, a government running a high deficit with credit rating downgrades, makes it difficult to source loans without an accompanying high interest rate. Although the interest on government bonds appear to be attractive, it is far less than what the government will have to pay on loans sourced from the international market, and they are not confined to rigid repayment schedules.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    @ Walter

    Your point has been well articulated and I agree 100%.

    Like

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